20
Jun
08

10 Reasons the Mets WILL Finish 10 Games Over .500!


After seeing fellow Mets fan Shatraw proclaim the Mets having no chance for the rest of the reason, reader Youppi’s heart was broken so he sent along HIS 10 reasons why the Mets WILL succeed. Youppi is the most diehard Mets fan I know, so this has to be good! (ed. notes in ital)

_________________

Sure, the Mets can’t do anything about the Wilpons, or Omar Minaya (well, they could fire him…), but they aren’t the ones actually playing the game anyways, it is up to the players themselves to make this turnaround happen. It is all going to come down to the team, and by looking at some past numbers and trends, we’ll see that those bats should liven up any day now. I submit my 10 reasons the Mets will finish 10+ games OVER .500 (and why they’ll be in the postseason!)

(Unless the reasons are the Phillies and Braves teams are both going to have epic collapses ala the Mets 2007, I don’t see it…)

1) Pre/Post All-Star break Splits: So the Mets are having a bad start to the year. Good thing that many of the linchpin players perform better in the second half! (AVG/OBP/SLG/OPS) for hitters

Carlos Beltran

Pre .272 .346 .474 .820

Post .291 .368 .524 .892

Beltran’s best months? June, July and August, so here we go…

David Wright

Pre .293 .375 .510 .885

Post .324 .399 .545 .944

When isn’t David good?

Carlos Delgado

Pre .270 .373 .525 .898

Post .291 .398 .570 .968

Yes, yes, he’s lost his bat speed. He can’t handle the inside pitch, and this is probably his last year with the Mets (Don’t count on it, I’m just waiting for Omar to sign him to a 5 year, 60 million deal around the All-Star break.) . It’s also probably his last chance to win it all, so here’s hoping his pre/post trends continue…

Aaron Heilman (ERA/WHIP/OAV)

Pre 4.80 1.29 .255

Post 3.45 1.29 .232

He’s already started righting the ship with recent solid outings, and as the summer heats up, so will his fastball, which he’ll hopefully trust more going forward…

(Zero chance he becomes dominant which is the one thing the Mets need him to be, regardless he has what, maybe 40 innings in him for the rest of the year, it simply won’t be enough)

Oliver Perez

Pre 4.72 1.47 .246

Post 4.13 1.41 .238

Neither set of numbers look terribly fantastic, but at least the second half looks better than the first.

(The definition of basket case)

Billy Wagner

Pre 2.59 1.02 .192

Post 2.12 1.00 .187

For all the crap Wagner has been getting, people were quick to throw out his dominant start to the year. Well, after a small hic-up, he’s back to his old ways, which continue pointing in the right direction after the All-Star Break. Oh, and Wagner vs. the Phillies for his career? 2.35ERA 1.00WHIP .190BAA

2) Phillies Pitching: How does the Phillies pitching correspond to the Mets being above .500? Well, the two teams will play each other 12 more times before seasons end, and here’s a look at how the staff is doing thus far (I’ve omitted Cole Hamels, as he’s obviously good, and a Santana/Hamels game could swing either way, the other games? Well…)

Brett Myers: 5.58, 1.54

Adam Eaton: 4.57, 1.39

Kyle Kendrik: 5.06, 1.52

Jamie Moyer: 4.09, 1.40

The Mets are 4-2 against the Phillies this season, and if it gets close, it’ll be the Phillies pheeling the heat this season to make it to the playoffs again (and this time not get swept). The Phillies are the team with the targets on their back, not the Mets, and I’m sure the Mets would love to get their revenge on last years party poopers. Smells like extra motivation to me.

(Except the Phillies offense is 10 times better than the Mets’, they play in a better offensive stadium meaning that even when the pitching blows, they’ll still score 8 runs.)

3) Johan Santana: The Mets landed an ace this off-season, and it’s easy to forget amongst all the other BS surrounding the Mets these days. After some early adjustment time, Johan has started to settle in, and here are his Pre/Post splits: [3.52 1.15 .233] [2.79 1.04 .209]. Pretty awesome. Yes, he’s 7-5, but in 4 of those loses the Mets offense hasn’t helped, scoring 2 runs or less every time. Some argue he’s a pitcher on the decline. Really? He has 5+ K’s in 12 of his 15 starts, and has only given up 2 HR’s (his biggest ‘problem’) in his last 40.2IP. Expect more good to come…

4) The Fans/Shea – There is no one who wants to see the Mets win more than the NY fans, hence the reason they are so extra critical of their players. It’s the final year at Shea, the final chance to recapture the magic of ’69 and ’86. No matter how grumbly they get, they’ll always be behind their team. Though the fans are fickle, ready to boo at every Delgado pop-up, only to come right back and cheer their voices dead at every Ramon Castro 2R double, the fans WANT to cheer, the players know this and feed off of it. The final weeks at Shea will not be showered with boos. I smell a love-fest on the horizion, full of cheers, good feelings, and all the support in the world for Shea to see the playoffs one last time.

(Shea is a dump, no one will miss it when it’s gone, the Mets “faithful” would rather boo than cheer)

5) David Wright: Talk about cracking all you want. You saw the split stats, and he’s still only 26; Wright could bust out for a 12 home run month at any moment. I still think he’ll be, at least top 3 in voting for the NL MVP (Um? What? Lance Berkman, Chase Utley, Chipper Jones, Adrian Gonzalez, I can go on…). Last three years, the AVG has gone .306, .311, .325, OBP .388, .381, .416, SLG .523, .531, .546. Not even the Phils can keep him down! He has a hit off of EVERY SINGLE PHILLIES PITCHER, except for Lidge (0/3), and JC Romero (0/2).

6) Jose Reyes: No doubt Jose is a sparkplug on this team. Simply getting on base puts the Mets at an advantage because he can cause havoc on the basepaths. For his career, Reyes is so far a pretty even pre/post player. So why do I say he’s a reason the Mets are going to go back up over .500? Well, after last seasons’ second half slump, it’s hard to remember just how good he can really be. I don’t foresee a drop like last years and you can see that he’s already back on the up-and-up by looking at his numbers form April through June or this year, and if there really was some sort of turmoil between Willie and Reyes, he should have his mind clear now. Reyes has found some power again too, with 8hrs already after only hitting 12 all of last year (19 in ’06.)

(Unless maybe Reyes isn’t the superstar that everyone thought he was going to be…Maybe 2006 was the aberration, not 2007….)

Career Pre/Post Splits

.284 .335 .430 .766

.287 .331 .435 .766

2006 Pre/Post Splits

300 .357 .481 .838

.300 .349 .495 .844

2007 Pre/Post Splits

.307 .387 .439 .825

.251 .316 .402 .719 <– very un-Reyes like

7) Jerry Manuel: Look, I liked Willie Randolph. I liked him a lot. And if I were ever to knock Willie on anything, I would say that he was always a little too stoic for my tastes. I like a guy who’ll go and yell or talk right back to a player giving him lip, and that is exactly what Manuel brings. He already showed Reyes that the attitude has got to go; he’s vocal in the dugout, and after the games. When Delgado had that terrible non-HR call made against him at Yankee Stadium, it was Manuel, not Randolph who was ejected from the game for giving it to the umps (Which is what a bench coach SHOULD do, save the manager and take the heat). The former 2000 AL Manager of the Year has experience, knows the team, and most importantly has something to prove. This is his chance to stick as manager of this team and shed the ‘Interim’ title. Willie signed a 3 year, $5.65 million contract. You don’t think Jerry wants a taste of that?

8) John Maine: Quickly establishing himself as a solid pitcher, and fan favorite, I think this is the season where John Maine finally breaks through and really comes up big down the stretch. Before the seasons started, some people were talking about him competing for the Cy Young award (were these people A) his family, B) really high?), which admittedly was a bit of a stretch, and while he hasn’t been dominant, he certainly hasn’t been bad. He’s only given up more than 4ER in 4 of his 14 starts, and has 9, 5+K games. Also, his career numbers vs. The Phils: 2.05ERA 1.18WHIP .224 OAV, and his numbers (career) at Shea: 3.61ERA 1.20WHIP .221OAV. Solid.

9) The Schedule. Both (Mets & Phils) are fairly similar in difficulty, each facing 17 teams currently over .500, and 12 and 11 (respectively) under. I think one of the most important stretches is coming up right now. The Mets, coming off series wins against TEX and LAA, will have 3 at Colorado (good morning, bats!), then 3 against the horrific Mariners, and then 4 against the Yanks. I don’t think it’s so unreasonable to expect a 7-3 record for the next 10, taking 2/3 from COL and SEA, and then splitting with the Yanks. Point is, the Mets have more home games, less travel, and are ready to dish out some payback for early season losses to other scrubby clubs.

10) Reason number 10? Plain and simple: YA GOTTA BELIEVE! And if you don’t, well then you’re just not a Mets fan. (As a Red Sox fan, I don’t. However, my boys are fucking CRUISING!)


3 Responses to “10 Reasons the Mets WILL Finish 10 Games Over .500!”


  1. June 20, 2008 at 2:17 pm

    Dudes, you’re both wrong. Marlins 08!!!

    Bring back Charles Johnson!

  2. June 20, 2008 at 6:32 pm

    Ten reasons the Indians won’t: 1-9 in the batting order and a faux Cy Young award winner.

  3. June 20, 2008 at 7:35 pm

    I agree; the Mets are going to turn it around. They’ll need some help from the front office at the trade deadline to find the batters who can support their core players but I expect good things from this team for the rest of the season.


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