Archive for April 17th, 2008

17
Apr
08

Carl Pavano Ain’t Walking Through that Door

Now I get that as a player agent, one’s responsibilities includes putting the best possible story forward about their client, but sometimes it just gets ridiculous. For example, Carl Pavano, owner of a 4 year 39.5 million dollar contract, and possessor of a 5-6 record in only 19 games played–for those of you counting that’s nearly $8M a win–and constant DL contributor has an agent who clearly is blazing on some serious drugs. According to Tom O’Connell, “Carl’s a 1-2 starter, those guys don’t grow on trees. Those guys are very rare, 200-inning guys are very rare in this game, and they’re the ones that make the money. And he did it two years in a row, before he got hurt, and I’m sure he’s going to do it again.”

For the record, the last time Pavano pitched 200 innings was 2004, the first time he threw 200 innings was 2003. Isn’t it more likely that he is NOT going to throw 200 innings ever, since he only did so in 2 of his 9 seasons? Are we allowed to base all future opportunities based solely on what we did 4 years ago? If so, my 2004 life-stats were pretty decent, and I’d like all future employers to only look at my work from that year as opposed to anything afterwards.

Unfortunately for Pavano, baseball is a numbers game, there are stats on everything, and generally, stats and numbers don’t lie. The story the stats tell about Pavano is that not only is it unlikely that he ever pitches 200 innings again, it is unlikely he’s ever a consistent major league starter ever again.

Now, let’s look at the other part of O’Connell’s ridiculous statement, “Carl’s a 1-2 starter…” Uh, since when? Yes, in 2003 and 2004 Pavano had dope seasons, unreal seasons, but those seasons are more a statistical aberration rather than a sign of consistent ability.

Let’s face it, after dating Alyssa Milano very little worthwhile has happened for Pavano. The chances of Pavano coming back and being an efficient starter for an entire season are probably about the same as Barry Bonds and Bud Selig making a travel buddy flick together.

So while I appreciate the dedication of his agent, those comments have to be some of the stupidest and unintelligent about baseball I’ve seen for a while.

That said, I expect to see the Asstros throw a 6 year 100 million contract at Pavano this off-season while he continues his 19th year of rehab sessions.




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